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Stock Market Outlook for October 3, 2022


Years following a weak September performance for stocks have typically resulted in a rebound through the fourth quarter of the year, unless the economy is already in recession.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

iShares S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index ETF (TSE:XIT.TO) Seasonal Chart

SPDR Morgan Stanley Technology ETF (AMEX:XNTK) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:XME) Seasonal Chart

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLB) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI USA Value Factor ETF (AMEX:VLUE) Seasonal Chart

First Trust NASDAQ Rising Dividend Achievers ETF (NASD:RDVY) Seasonal Chart

iShares North American Tech-Multimedia Networking ETF (NYSE:IGN) Seasonal Chart

Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE) Seasonal Chart

Check Point Software Technologies, Ltd. (NASD:CHKP) Seasonal

iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASD:SOXX) Seasonal Chart

Nutrien Ltd. (TSE:NTR.TO) Seasonal Chart

Cameco Corp. (NYSE:CCJ) Seasonal Chart

BHP Billiton plc (NYSE:BBL) Seasonal Chart

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce SA (NYSE:VALE) Seasonal Chart

United Rentals, Inc. (NYSE:URI) Seasonal Chart

 

 

The Markets

Stocks closed lower again on Friday, capping off a brutal month for equity investors as the market continues to price in the new Fed rate forecast and the threat of an economic recession to follow.  The S&P 500 Index slipped by 1.51%, giving up earlier gains and closing below the June intraday low at 3636.  The market continues to struggle to gain a footing, losing levels of support and continuing to show greater reaction to levels of resistance, which is not exactly the framework to be aggressive in the equity market.  Major moving averages continue to point lower, providing hurdles to sell into when and if they are re-tested.  The benchmark is presently knocking on the door of a range of significant levels between 3200 and 3600, including the 200-week moving average at 3589.  As highlighted in a previous report, over the past three decades, a break of the 200-week moving average has only coincided with periods when the economy is in recession, therefore this will be a critical level to watch to deem how market participants view the macro fundamentals

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Comparison of the credit market now to what it was back in 2008, the last time the S&P 500 Index shed over 9% in September
  • Study of the market performance following other significant September declines and a comparison of the macro fundamental trends this year compared to past recessions
  • Average tendency for stocks in the month of October
  • Stocks that have gained or lost in every October over their trading history
  • Investor sentiment

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or by clicking on the following link and logging in: Market Outlook for October 3

Not signed up yet?  Subscribe now to receive full access to all of the research and analysis that we publish.

Just released…

Our monthly report for October is out, providing you with everything that you need to know to navigate through the month(s) ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of October
  • Sentiment and positioning
  • Significant rebound of shipping volumes in August
  • Downfall of couriers, rise of warehousing
  • Jobless claims as a coincident indicator of economic activity
  • Credit spreads pointing to fading financial stress compared to the June lows
  • Searching for clues as to the direction of stocks in the slope of earnings expectations
  • Lacklustre demand persisting in the consumer economy
  • Inflationary pressures easing on aggregate, but the devil is in the details
  • Agriculture still expected to grow into year-end
  • Business sentiment surveys continue reiterate a manufacturing economy that is in decline
  • The bull case for Technology
  • Investors not positioned in a manner consistent ahead of prior economic downturns
  • Things to lookout for to determine if and when the change of the intermediate-term direction of stocks is realized
  • Former alpha generators through the first half of the year showing significant topping patterns
  • Gauges of risk sentiment holding steady
  • Energy sector vulnerable as it enters its weakest time of the year
  • Energy sector alternative continues to fuel strength in portfolios
  • Financials attracting attention
  • REITs struggling as their weakest time of the year gets underway
  • Copper
  • Bonds
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector Reviews and Ratings
  • Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of October
  • Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in October

Subscribers can look for this report in their inbox or in the report archive at the following link: https://charts.equityclock.com/

Not subscribed yet?  Signup now to receive this and other regular reports, along with full access to our chart database.  The most profitable time of the year, historically, for stocks is nearly upon us, and you don’t want to miss out on the potential opportunities ahead.

With the new month upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for October, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every October over their trading history.  While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy.  Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this tenth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish (no surprise) at 1.12. 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

  •  No significant earnings scheduled for today

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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