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Stock Market Outlook for November 19, 2020

Housing starts positively diverged from seasonal norms in the month of October, rising by 2.5% (NSA).


Real Time Economic Calendar provided by



*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) Seasonal Chart

Boston Properties, Inc. (NYSE:BXP) Seasonal Chart

Mohawk Inds, Inc. (NYSE:MHK) Seasonal Chart

Total Energy Services Inc. (TSE:TOT.TO) Seasonal Chart

Core Laboratories N V (NYSE:CLB) Seasonal Chart

Dana Inc. (NYSE:DAN) Seasonal Chart

American Axle & Manufac. (NYSE:AXL) Seasonal Chart

Titan Intl, Inc. (NYSE:TWI) Seasonal Chart

Canadian Solar Inc. (NASD:CSIQ) Seasonal Chart

Aircastle Ltd. (NYSE:AYR) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Canadian Aggregate Bond Index ETF (TSE:VAB.TO) Seasonal Chart

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (NYSE:IJR) Seasonal Chart

iShares Micro-Cap ETF (NYSE:IWC) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Capital Markets ETF (NYSE:KCE) Seasonal Chart

SPDR Dow Jones REIT ETF (NYSE:RWR) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Real Estate ETF (NYSE:VNQ) Seasonal Chart

Vanguard Extended Market ETF (NYSE:VXF) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks sold off on Wednesday following headlines that indicated that New York would be tightening up on restrictions with schools moving to remote learning amidst the rising case count of coronavirus in the region.  The S&P 500 Index closed down by 1.16%, reversing the early week gains.  Support at previous trading range resistance remains intact.  Rising 20 and 50-day moving averages now hover around 3465 and 3418, respectively, providing another point of support to the short and intermediate market trends.  Seasonally, the market remains in a softer period that spans between the first few days following the US election and the days ahead of the US Thanksgiving as portfolio managers start to execute year-end transactions, including tax-loss harvesting.  The downbeat timeframe typically gives investors another stab at long positions to take advantage of the strength in the market that is average through the final weeks of the year.

On schedule for the Wednesday session, the Energy Information Administration released its tally of petroleum inventories for the week just past.  The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that oil inventories increased by 769,000 barrels last week, which is less than the 1.65 million barrel injection that was expected by analysts.  Gasoline stockpiles, meanwhile, increased by 2.6 million barrels.  The result saw the days of supply of oil tick lower by half of a day to 36.1, while gasoline days of supply ticked higher by three-tenths to 26.9.  The average days of supply for each at this point in October is 23.0 and 23.2, respectively.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Subscribe now to see if the fundamental trends point to a bullish or bearish bias for the energy sector at this point in time.

On the economic front, a report on housing starts in the US was released before Wednesday’s opening bell.  The headline print of October’s Housing Starts report indicated that activity increased by 4.9% last month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.53 million.  Analysts were expecting that starts would remain unchanged at 1.46 million.  Stripping out the adjustments, starts actually increased by 2.5% in October, which is a positive divergence compared to the 1.3% decline that is average for this time of year.  The year-to-date change is now higher by 21.9% through the first ten months of the year, which is 7.2% below the seasonal average trend.  This is the weakest year-to-date performance since 2009.  We break it all down for subscribers in our report released intraday.  Subscribe now to see how to trade it.

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.  Looking at the Dark Index, our gauge of institutional sentiment, the metric of dark pool buying activity fell back to 41.7% on Wednesday.  Typically, levels 45% or higher indicate buying activity.




Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index



TSE Composite

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