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Stock Market Outlook for September 17, 2020

Price of oil turning back towards previous support, now resistance, around the convergence of major moving averages.


Real Time Economic Calendar provided by



*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (NASD:ADP) Seasonal Chart

Altius Minerals Corp. (TSE:ALS.TO) Seasonal Chart

Tootsie Roll Industries (NYSE:TR) Seasonal Chart

Banco Santander SA (NYSE:SAN) Seasonal Chart

MarketAxess Holdings Inc. (NASD:MKTX) Seasonal Chart

Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. (AMEX:IBKR) Seasonal Chart

Hudson Pacific Properties Inc. (NYSE:HPP) Seasonal Chart

Safety Insurance Group, Inc. (NASD:SAFT) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell during the FOMC meeting announcement.  The S&P 500 Index shed nearly half of one percent, turning lower from short-term resistance around the 20-day moving average.  Technology stocks once again led the selling pressure as rotation away from the quarter’s winners and into some of the laggards continues.  The Technology sector ETF (XLK) similarly turned lower from its 20-day moving average, on track to retest support at its 50-day.  Seasonally, weakness in the technology sector continues into the start of October.  Mean reversion, such as what is occurring right now, was a significant theme that we encouraged subscribers in our monthly report to position for.  Subscribe now to assure that you are always kept up-to-date of these seasonally recurring influences.

On schedule for the Wednesday session, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its tally of petroleum inventories for the week just past.  The EIA indicates oil inventories declined by 4.4 million barrels last week, which is a divergence compared to analyst estimates that called for an injection of 1.3 million barrels. Gasoline stockpiles, meanwhile, declined by 381,000 barrels. The result saw the days of supply of oil increase by four-tenths to 36.2, while gasoline days of supply was higher by one-tenth to 26.6. The average days of supply for each at this point in September is 21.6 and 23.0, respectively.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday, including where we see the opportunity in the energy market and where to execute.  Signup now.

On the economic front, a report on retail sales in the US was released before Wednesday’s opening bell.  The headline print of August’s report indicated that activity increased by 0.6% last month, which was weaker than the 1.0% increase that was expected by analysts. Less gas and autos, the increase was slightly better at 0.7%, but this was still below estimates that called for a 1.1% rise. Stripping out the adjustments, retail sales actually declined by 1.4% in August versus the month prior. The result is a significant negative divergence compared to the 2.7% rise that is average for this summer month. The year-to-date change is now hovering 2.3% above the seasonal average trend, losing altitude compared to its seasonal norm. While no longer the strongest year-to-date performance on record, the performance still ranks fairly well compared to recent history. We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Signup now to be included on this actual look at how the consumer is performing, rather than how the seasonal adjustments want you to think they are performing.

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.81.




Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index



TSE Composite

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