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Stock Market Outlook for May 31, 2022


Whether looking at the Mid-term election year cycle, the 7-year cycle, or the average pattern of stocks for years that end in “2”, they all point to significant lows for the market around this time of year.

 

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com.

 

 

*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

Subscribers – Click on the relevant link to view the full profile. Not a subscriber? Signup here.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. (NASD:CINF) Seasonal Chart

Duke Energy Corp. (NYSE:DUK) Seasonal Chart

iShares U.S. Real Estate ETF (NYSE:IYR) Seasonal Chart

Synopsys, Inc. (NASD:SNPS) Seasonal Chart

Healthpeak Properties Inc (NYSE:PEAK) Seasonal Chart

Global X Gold Explorers ETF (AMEX:GOEX) Seasonal Chart

Laurentian Bank Of Canada (TSE:LB.TO) Seasonal Chart

Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives, Inc. (NASD:IEA) Seasonal Chart

 

Note to readers: Given the Memorial Day closure of the US markets on Monday, our next Market Outlook report will be released on Tuesday.  Have a great long weekend!

 

 

 

The Markets

Stocks rallied on Friday as the typical end of May positivity ahead of the Memorial Day holiday provided much needed relief to the selling pressures realized in recent weeks.  The S&P 500 Index jumped by 2.47%, making further progress above the declining 20-day moving average that was broken in the previous session.  Previous horizontal support at 4150 is now being tested as a point of resistance, providing the first major test for the bulls that have been overwhelmed by levels of resistance since the year began.  Above this hurdle, the market is looking at 4280, which is not only previous horizontal support, but also represents the declining 50-day moving average.  This is the more likely hurdle to give the market pause as we move beyond this positive short-term seasonal timeframe that stretches into the start of June.  We continue to have questions over what the market may deliver through the first half of June as we bring our speculated first half of the year weakness to an end and prepare for the summer rally period towards the back half of June.  In the meantime, we are benefitting from this rebound that has materialized in the past week via ramped up equity exposure enacted in the previous week within our Super Simple Seasonal Portfolio and very timely buy dates for the technology sector suggested in our model portfolio available at the end of our monthly report.

Today, in our Market Outlook to subscribers, we discuss the following:

  • Weekly look at the large-cap benchmark
  • Average tendencies for stocks during mid-term election years, years ending in “2”, and the 7-year cycle
  • Stocks that have gained in every June over their trading history
  • US International Trade and what the data says about the prospect of an economic recession

Subscribe now and we’ll send this report to you.

Just released…

Our monthly report for June is out, providing you with all of the insight that you need to navigate the month ahead.

Highlights in this report include:

  • Equity market tendencies in the month of June
  • Treasury Bonds
  • Risk-Reward for stocks has improved significantly
  • Review of where we are in our speculative forecast for stocks in 2022
  • Pursuing areas of the market that have not broken down
  • Strength in materials production providing another shot at a very profitable trade from earlier this year
  • Gold and gold miners
  • Finding ways to stay involved in manufacturing beneficiaries
  • Strong manufacturing activity, but waning sentiment
  • Shipping metrics providing a leading indication of an economic downturn
  • Consumer spending remaining afloat
  • Ballooning inventories
  • Peaking inflation expectations
  • The shift in the trend of mortgage interest costs
  • Small caps testing previous significant resistance, now support
  • Positioning for the months ahead
  • Sector Reviews and Ratings
  • Stocks that have Frequently Gained in the Month of June
  • Notable Stocks and ETFs Entering their Period of Strength in June

Subscribers can look for this 92-page report in their inbox.

Not subscribed yet?  Signup now and we’ll send this and other reports to get you started with our service.

With the new month almost upon us and as we celebrate the release of our monthly report for June, today we release our screen of all of the stocks that have gained in every June over their trading history.  While we at Equity Clock focus on a three-pronged approach (seasonal, technical, and fundamental analysis) to gain exposure to areas of the market that typically perform well over intermediate (2 to 6 months) timeframes, we know that stocks that have a 100% frequency of success for a particular month is generally of interest to those pursuing a seasonal investment strategy.  Below are the results:

And how about those securities that have never gained in this sixth month of the year, here they are:

*Note: None of the results highlighted above have the 20 years of data that we like to see in order to accurately gauge the annual recurring, seasonal influences impacting an investment, therefore the reliability of the results should be questioned.  We present the above list as an example of how our downloadable spreadsheet available to yearly subscribers can be filtered.

Sentiment on Friday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.90.

 

 

 

Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:

 

 

S&P 500 Index

 

 

TSE Composite

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