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Stock Market Outlook for May 14, 2020

Days of supply of oil continues to rise, but we may be at a turning point that could lead to trading opportunities into the summer.


Real Time Economic Calendar provided by



*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Sempra Energy (NYSE:SRE) Seasonal Chart

MSCI, Inc. (NYSE:MSCI) Seasonal Chart

LivePerson, Inc. (NASD:LPSN) Seasonal Chart

Absolute Software Corp. (TSE:ABT.TO) Seasonal Chart

Insignia Systems, Inc. (NASD:ISIG) Seasonal Chart

Invesco India ETF (NYSE:PIN) Seasonal Chart

SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (NYSE:XSW) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks closed firmly lower for a second day as investors weigh the reopening of the economy against equity valuations at multi-year highs.  The S&P 500 Index shed 1.75%, closing below its 20-day moving average for the first time since early April.  The much anticipated bearish crossover with respect to MACD was finally triggered, initiating a signal to sell.  The momentum indicator has been right on point providing buy and sell signals throughout this bear market decline over the past few months.  The indicator first triggered a sell signal on February 24th, prior to the waterfall declines that spanned the month of March.  A subsequent MACD buy signal on March 26th provided a timely indication to redeploy risk.  And, now, a sell signal provides a further tailwind to the bears that had been suggesting that the rebound from the March low was overdone and a pullback was required.  The 50-day moving average at 2721 provides a level of support to the downside.  Looking for further insight, including how we are positioned and setups that we are watching?  Subscribe to our service to receive these timely goodies in our daily commentary delivered directly to subscriber inboxes each night. 

On schedule for this time of week, the energy information administration (EIA) released its weekly tally of petroleum inventories in the US.  The EIA reported that oil inventories declined by 745,000 barrels last week, which is significantly less than the over 4 million barrel build that was expected by analysts. Gasoline stockpiles, meanwhile, declined for the third straight week, falling by 3.5 million barrels. The result saw the days of supply of oil rise by a tenth of a day to 42.0, while gasoline days of supply dipped by over four days to 40.1. Both statistics remain in record high territory. The average days of supply for each at this time of year is 23.6 and 24.8, respectively.  We sent out further insight to subscribers intraday.  Subscribe now and we will send you our report, including what would get us confident to take a trading position in oil or the energy sector.

Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.17.  The print is back to the upper limit of the recent range, which has seen swings between a low of 0.83 and a high of 1.21 over the past month and a half.





Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index



TSE Composite

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