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Stock Market Outlook for November 17, 2020

Manufacturer sentiment in New York came in below average for the month of November as the big year-end push to re-stockpile shows signs of waning.


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*** Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities.   As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends.

Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today:

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Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart

Just Energy Group Inc. (TSE:JE.TO) Seasonal Chart

Treasury Metals Inc. (TSE:TML.TO) Seasonal Chart

First Solar Inc. (NASD:FSLR) Seasonal Chart

Darling Ingredients Inc. (NYSE:DAR) Seasonal Chart

Gray Television, Inc. (NYSE:GTN) Seasonal Chart

Hill International Inc. (NYSE:HIL) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Germany Small-Cap ETF (AMEX:EWGS) Seasonal Chart

First Trust Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (NASD:FEMB) Seasonal Chart

First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Green Energy Index Fund (NASD:QCLN) Seasonal Chart

iShares Global REIT ETF (AMEX:REET) Seasonal Chart

Global X SuperDividend ETF (AMEX:SDIV) Seasonal Chart

iShares MSCI Global Agriculture Producers ETF (AMEX:VEGI) Seasonal Chart



The Markets

Stocks surged to start another week as investors continue to look beyond the current pandemic woes given further vaccine news highlighting the effectiveness of the drugs being trialed.  The S&P 500 Index gained 1.16%, moving above the psychologically important 3600 level and charting a fresh record close.  The benchmark bounced from support presented by previous trading range resistance around 3550.  The breakout of the approximately 300-point range projects upside potential towards 3800, now just 4.8% above present levels.  The rise in price in recent weeks has started to pull up on the 50-day moving average, which previously flat-lined into the end of October, representative of the range-bound trend that the benchmark found itself within through September and October.  Both the rising 20 and 50-day moving averages are in positions of support, should a short-term headwind materialize.  Momentum indicators continue to point higher following the MACD Buy signal that was triggered at the start of the month.

On the economic front, we got a bit of a concerning look manufacturing conditions in New York for the month of November.  The headline print of the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at +6.3 for November, which missed the consensus analyst that called for a print of +13.5.  Positive values indicate manufacturer optimism, often coincident with expanding conditions, while negative values indicate the opposite.  Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the current business outlook index came in at –10.6, which is weaker than the –3.3 level that is average for this second to last month of the year. 

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Sentiment on Monday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bullish at 0.73.  The Dark Index, a gauge of institutional buying activity via dark pools, ticked lower again from 43.1% on Friday to 41.5% as of the close on Monday.  Generally, levels 45% and higher are indicative of buying demand.



Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today:



S&P 500 Index



TSE Composite

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