Non-seasonally adjusted US International Trade data contradicting the headline results. Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com. **NEW** As part of the ongoing process to offer new and up-to-date information regarding seasonal and technical investing, we are adding a section to the daily reports that details the stocks that are entering their period of seasonal strength, based on average historical start dates. Stocks highlighted are for information purposes only and should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. As always, the use of technical and fundamental analysis is encouraged in order to fine tune entry and exit points to average seasonal trends. Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today: The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) Seasonal Chart The Markets Stocks jumped on Wednesday, led by the Financial sector, as investors waited for the results from the Federal Reserve’s stress test of banks. The S&P 500 Index added almost nine-tenths of one percent, recouping the losses recorded in the pervious day’s session. The positive result is right one cue with the seasonal tendency for markets at this time of year that typically sees major benchmarks in both Canada and the US post gains, on average, leading into the start of the third quarter. As highlighted in a recent report, between the close of June 27th to the close of July 17th, the S&P 500 Index has gained an average of 1.11% over the past 50 years; positive results were recorded in 33, or two-thirds, of the past 50 periods. So far, so good! This of course leads into the most volatile period for equity markets spanning the remainder of the third quarter. The volatility index realizes a low for the year, on average, in the first few days of July, then spiking into the start of October. The VIX is gradually revealing solid support just below 10 and positive momentum divergences have become apparent. A spike above this low base sometime in the near future appears likely. On the economic front, the EIA released its latest look at petroleum inventories in the US. The headline print indicated a minor injection to oil stockpiles of 100,000 barrels, while gasoline realized a drawdown of 900,000 barrels. The result did little to move the days of supply of each, with oil rising two-tenths to 29.7 and gasoline rising one-tenth to 25.4. But the highlight of the report was not in the inventory levels, but rather the change in domestic production of oil, something that has been the focus of investors for a number of months. US Field Production of Oil fell by 100,000 barrels per day last week, amounting to the largest weekly decline in production in almost a year. Analysts would have to look back to the week ending July 1st of 2016 to see a larger draw, an event that coincided with a low point in production for the year. One cannot help but notice that the year-to-date change in production through the first half of 2016 and the trend so far this year resemble mirror images of one another as producers react to the gyrations in the price of oil. Coming into the high demand summer season for both oil and gas, the topping of domestic production should help to draw on bloated inventory levels, thereby stabilizing prices around present levels. As for the change in the level of gasoline product supplied, despite a minor downtick last week, this gauge of demand is still running well above average, up 12.7% on the year. Seasonally, the level of product supplied typically outweighs production between now and the start of September, the height of the summer driving period, resulting in inventory withdrawals to satisfy demand. The framework is sufficient to stabilize the price of these energy commodities, but whether it is enough to alter the pessimistic sentiment of energy investors has yet to be seen. The price of oil is bouncing from support at $42, turning up from around the lower bound of the longer-term trading range between $39 and $55. Seasonally, the price of oil has gained in 70% of Julys over the past 20 years, although the average return was a loss of 0.2%. In other news, the US census bureau released the advanced look at international trade for the month of May. The headline print indicated that the deficit narrowed to $65.9 Billion, from $67.1 Billion previous, the result of a 0.4% decline in imports combined with a 0.4% rise in exports. Stripping out the seasonal adjustments, the results contradict the headline results. Exports rose by 3.8% and imports jumped by 7.6%, both above the average May change of +1.9% and +1.6%, respectively. The gain in imports puts the year-to-date change firmly above average, while exports remain stuck below its seasonal norm. The result is in opposition to President Trump’s desires, which he has indicated his intention to reduce the trade deficit by promoting exports and hindering imports, possibly by way of an import tax. Focussing on the export side, a large jump in auto and consumer exports helped to support May’s export gain, but both are merely recouping the losses recorded in the month of April. Auto exports are back to an above average position on the year, while the other categories lag their historical norms. The below average results have been a detriment to manufacturing activity in the US as negative impacts from the high US dollar weigh on activity. The value of the US Dollar was lower on Wednesday, continuing a trend of lower-highs and lower-lows that has spanned the first half of the year. Support on the US Dollar Index at 93 is now less than 3% below present levels. Seasonally, the US Dollar Index has averaged a loss between the start of July and the middle of October. Exports Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended close to neutral at 0.95. Seasonal charts of companies reporting earnings today: S&P 500 Index TSE Composite